Those of you who have been with me a while may have noted that on occasions I have stated that I don’t actually buy into the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) thing. Yes I believe man has made a difference to atmospheric levels of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane but I also believe the less flawed science of the geological record, that Earth has been hotter in the distant past. This distant past refers to a time not only before the industrial revolution but before human had actually begun to spread across the globe let alone settle in one place and come up with the bright idea of building factories and driving around in cars.
I am talking distant past…like really distant pre-wheel past.
Now scientists have long debated the effects of the Sun on weather and climate down here on Earth. Many have researched this and most have come to the conclusion that the number of sunspots in a given cycle will affect the climate on Earth a couple of cycles later.
So, at the moment we are entering the minimum of cycle 24. The sunspot figures have been low, the lowest for a century. Cycle 25 is predicted to see even lower sunspot numbers. Working on the two cycles ahead thing this could mean a return of bitterly cold and snowy winters as well as cooler and wetter summers for the Northern Hemisphere for 30-60 years starting within the next decade.
Today, Sky News published a piece from one of these climate cooling scientists:
A mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia.
A mathematical model of the Sun’s magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.
A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun.
It predicts rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles beginning in 2021 and lasting 33 years.
She isn’t alone.
Livingston and Penn published a paper in 2010 predicting, based on solid data that solar cycle 24 would see far fewer sunspots than usual and that solar cycle 25 would see less still if any due to the magnetic variations on the surface of the sun.
Professor Don Easterbrook of Western Washington University wrote in 2008 that global cooling rather than global warming was most likely in the coming decades.
Richard Alley a Penn State geologist showed in his work with ice cores that the Earth was hotter eons ago than it is now. He also proved from those cores that the climate is in constant flux and goes through cycles of warming and cooling and that abrupt climate change from one state to the other can, and does happen.
The fact is the climate cycles,…it’s natural.
What’s worrying though is that all government initiatives are aimed at mitigating the effects of a warming world, nothing is said or done, about the possibility of the Earth cooling.
Could it be that the increase in greenhouse gases and the associated warming that has caused…though that is less than the scientists predicted, is all that has prevented a cooling Earth being more obvious in the data? Is the rate of warming less than expected because we are cooling?
What if the ‘coolists’ are right? What preparations are in place to allow us to cope with winters that are many degrees colder, and far snowier than they are now? Hell the UK can’t cope with 6 inches of snow without the country grinding to an embarrassing halt so what would we do if we had four feet of the stuff for three, four, five or even six months of the year?
Whilst digesting all this you may want to consider other natural events that could enhance the effects of a very prolonged cold snap, or a few decades where winters are beyond anything we have seen so far in our lifetimes.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections can affect us in many ways. By distorting the electromagnetic field that surrounds the Earth they can cause massive and catastrophic electrical failure.
Electro Magnetic Pulses can be natural or man-made. Defence departments across the Western world are in a state of constant fear over a rogue nation detonating such a device high above the surface in order to knock communications and the electricity supply.
Dealing with either situation would be hard enough, dealing with it in an extended winter would be almost impossible for tens of millions of people.
So what’s the answer?
As always preparedness. Most of us involved in sites like this, either writing or reading know that all is not well. We see beyond the news and the rhetoric of politicians. We know that there are more threats than Putin pissing off half the world, Trump pissing off the other half and Theresa May pissing off some in both those camps.
We know that there are things natural and man-made that can change our lives in a very short space of time and that is why we keep our stores full and educate our children in things that you can’t find in modern text books.
We are the makers and doers, the menders, the people who are reviving traditional crafts and passing on our learning to the next generation.
We are the people that know that even if these things don’t happen to us they will certainly happen to our children and grandchildren.
We as individuals are powerless against mother nature when she’s at her most extreme. We as individuals can’t stop North Korea launching an ICBM but we as individuals can alter the course of what happens in the aftermath of these incidents.
We can, by our depth of thought, perception and planning make our lives and those of our families more bareable in times of crisis.
We need to step it up though with rising prices it isn’t easy. So many things can threaten our food security and many of those things can happen fast, very fast.
From shortened growing seasons caused by freezing winters to an EMP knocking out the grid and with it the just in time food supply chain, the threats to our future seem to increase year on year…or is it just that I’m becoming more aware of the possibilities?
I’ve listed a few articles you may be interested in below.